{"id":1182,"date":"2011-02-01T17:09:55","date_gmt":"2011-02-01T22:09:55","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/tomathon.com\/mphp\/?p=1182"},"modified":"2011-03-12T19:47:32","modified_gmt":"2011-03-13T00:47:32","slug":"nigers-elections-underway","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.tomathon.com\/mphp\/2011\/02\/nigers-elections-underway\/","title":{"rendered":"Niger’s Presidential Elections are Underway"},"content":{"rendered":"
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The PNDS Campaign headquarters in Niamey, photo from Niger Elections.<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n

The 31st of January saw Niger’s Legislative elections, combined with the first round of the Presidential elections. Results are not yet known, and the top two in the Presidential race will re-run on 14 March. Here’s some tools to follow it.<\/p>\n

The best immediate updates on the polls and count can be found at the African Elections observer site’s @NigerElections Twitter feed<\/a> as well as their news site at africanelections.org\/niger<\/a>. Their photo gallery<\/a> is also wonderful (and the source for the image above).<\/p>\n

[UPDATE 2:40 GMT Feb 2 :<\/strong> There are no official results yet announced. Rumored provisional results are being passed around — an example is here<\/a> — but their simple repetition of the urban conventional wisdom makes them either suspect or expected.<\/p>\n

Mahamadou Issoufou<\/a> (PNDS-Tarayya<\/a>) in the upper 20s, followed by either Seyni Oumarou<\/a> (MNSD-Nassara<\/a>) and\/or Hama Amadou<\/a> (MODEN\/FA LUMANA<\/a>) from 20% to 24%.\u00a0 This would match both the aggregate Municipal\/Departmental election results of\u00a0 January and the relative profile of the parties.\u00a0 While Issoufou is the favorite<\/a>, there is no accounting for tactical endorsements for the second round.\u00a0 Note that an RFI reported telephone survey<\/a> (seen via Sahelblog<\/a>) reporting Issoufou with over 40% support seems a possible result of sample bias towards urban educated voters.\u00a0 A run off is almost certain, and the questions will be how Legislative results set the stage for the new government, and whether the PNDS faces the new MODEN LUMANA or the MNDS, reversed in last years coup.\u00a0 Each could color the results — and the mandatory backroom deals<\/a> — very differently.<\/p>\n

The reports of attacks<\/a> by PNDS militants in their heartland of Tahoua, as well as unconfirmed charges by Hama<\/a> of fraud and intimidation against his party in Tillaberi<\/a> and Niamey, are not evidence of some general breakdown in law or a pattern of vote-rigging. Apart from 17 polling stations in Tassara<\/a> (which seem to have been foiled by some local communal conflict), and reports of chronic petty delays and procedural fumbling<\/a>, the poll seems to have proceeded in peace<\/a> and openness<\/a>.\u00a0 While turnout (30%-50%) is low, it is the historical norm, and some rural areas reported record-breaking numbers of women voters<\/a>.\u00a0 ECOWAS observers,<\/a> among 250 official NGO or foreign poll monitors, have seconded this impression.<\/p>\n

Rather they may be a prescient image of petty\u00a0 parliamentary conflict in the 7th Republic, not unlike that between the CDS <\/a>and the MNSD of the early 1990s which drove the 3rd Republic into gridlock.<\/p>\n

Regardless, it will likely be several days before we get any real numbers, and several more before more distant of the more than 2000 polling offices report. ]<\/strong><\/p>\n

You can also follow the #Niger2011 Twitter channel<\/a> for updates and links to news, including some of my translations. [Update:<\/strong> Amadou Djibril<\/a> is collecting these links in a Daily Digest here<\/a>. ]<\/strong><\/p>\n

Alex Thurston’s Sahel Blog<\/a> has the usual informed coverage and discussion here<\/a> and here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

And of course, the best Nigerien<\/a> news coverage is always collected on http:\/\/nigerdiaspora.com<\/a> and http:\/\/tamtaminfo.com<\/a> .<\/p>\n

UPDATE, INTERNET CAMPAIGNING:<\/strong> Nigerien politics has begun to capture the social media bug, especially in the sizable diaspora community.\u00a0 You can follow announcements from the two Facebook pages (here<\/a> and here<\/a>) of\u00a0 Hama Amadou’s Mouvement D\u00e9mocratique Nig\u00e9rien Pour une F\u00e9d\u00e9ration Africaine MODEN-FA Lumana (as well as their website<\/a>), the two Facebook pages for Mamadou Issoufou’s PNDS (here<\/a> and here<\/a> and their French section here<\/a>) and their official website<\/a> (a French section also has a web presence<\/a>).\u00a0 The MNSD, perhaps tellingly, has no Facebook presence apart from this “Free Mamadou Tandja<\/a>” page.\u00a0 I might also note that the official MNSD website<\/a> was never updated after Hama and his supporters split form the party in 2009.<\/p>\n

Nigerien parties and their supporters have made use of internet video in this campaign as never before.\u00a0 Highly produced videos of MODEN FA LUMANA events<\/a>, videos of Mahamadou Issoufou’s PNDS campaign<\/a> — including scenes from his recent appearances<\/a> in all corners the country (not a normal feature of campaigns) —\u00a0 and MNDS rallies <\/a>have appeared on You Tube and DailyMotion.\u00a0 There’s even several MNSD Nassara – Seini Omarou music videos<\/a>.\u00a0 Wherever you come down politically, they’ll have you taping your toes. ]<\/strong><\/p>\n

Here are some of the latest news stories that caught my eye:<\/p>\n

*AFP: 50 percent turnout in Niger polls: electoral panel<\/a><\/p>\n

*Une \u00e9lection pr\u00e9sidentielle un peu trop calme(France24:The Observers)<\/a>: includes an inside look at the polling process and photo gallery.<\/p>\n

*Democracy in action in Niger; 7 million vote in general election (Wire via India Express)<\/a><\/p>\n

*Niger:Le pouvoir civil va reprendre la main( Courrier international)<\/a><\/p>\n

*Niger junta says poll went on without a hitch (Africa Review)<\/a><\/p>\n

*Le Sahel’s official statement:
\n“Le Pr\u00e9sident du Conseil Supr\u00eame pour la Restauration de la D\u00e9mocratie, Chef de l\u2019Etat, le G\u00e9n\u00e9ral de Corps d\u2019Arm\u00e9e Djibo Salou, a proc\u00e9d\u00e9 au lancement des op\u00e9rations de vote : sous le signe de l\u2019espoir…”<\/a><\/p>\n

*Pr\u00e9sidentielle au Niger : taux de participation faible \u00e0 Niamey (Afrik.com)<\/a><\/p>\n

*Niger : M\u00eames hommes, m\u00eames intrigues ? (radio analysis from RFI)<\/a>: Probably, would be my answer.
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