Nigerien sources are saying direct talks between the government and opposition leaders in Niamey could begin on Saturday, a strategy that has been pushed by Nigerian mediators.  Prime minister and frequent flier Ali Badjo Gamatie had previously promised the EU and the Nigerians such negotiations, while both supporters and opponents of Tandja had said flatly that there was nothing to discuss. There seems little that could be accomplished.  Tandja has seemed to side increasingly with the hardline supporters like Nouhou Arzika, the crazy uber-nationalist former protest leader (he led the anti-tax protests against Tandja and Hama Amadou in 2005, but cleaved to Tandja during the Tuareg conflict) who’s now the populist voice of the new Republic. I’ve previously compared him to Ivorian state sponsored quasi-fascist Charles Ble Goude, and I think the comparison is apt. The official news is full of his opinions, as well as increasingly Kim-Jong-Il -esque hommages to the President.

Despite a European demands, Tandja says he will go ahead with the Municipal elections on December 27.  Any cancellation would suggest the “7th Republic compromise theory” might be in the offing.  As of yet, it’s full steam ahead.

It also remains to be seen if the opposition will call off protests planned for the 22nd, when Tandja’s term was legally to end.  This date has also cropped up in anti-Tandja pamphlets that turned up at military bases last month.  The Arzika & government sponsored marches (officials including Tandja himself appeared at most) of last week, which followed the opposition marches on the 13th reportedly devolved into violence in opposition PNDS-Tarayya leader Mahamadou Issoufou‘s home base of Tahoua.

Each year (for the last several) the Republic Day celebrations take place in a different regional capitol, meaning all the top officials head out of Niamey and sit around a stadium watch dancing and giving speeches.  This year it is the party is at Diffa in the far distant east, home region of Tandja. This seems a particularly dangerous trip for a government in crisis, but so far Tandja has shown no worry for his throne, jetting off repeatedly and leaving his military chiefs in charge.

One Burkina paper rightfully called this Republic Day (the 18th) as the beginning of “A Week of Full of Dangers.” We’ll see.

Related articles Eslewhere

• Niger: Movement Toward A Compromise? (sahelblog.wordpress.com)
• Niger: Obama Weighs In, Protests and Counterprotests Hit Niamey (sahelblog.wordpress.com)